{
  "slug": "hindcast-benchmark-tests-llm-forecasting-without-future-leaks-714051",
  "title": "Hindcast Benchmark Tests LLM Forecasting Without Future Leaks",
  "dek": "Hindcast replays resolved Polymarket markets with a fixed pre-event Reddit archive, testing whether LLMs can make forecasts from past information rather than retrieve outcomes.",
  "summary": "Hindcast evaluates LLM forecasters by replaying resolved Polymarket markets with only pre-event Reddit posts, reducing leakage from training data and retrieval.",
  "tags": [
    "LLM forecasting",
    "AI evaluation",
    "prediction markets",
    "Polymarket",
    "retrieval"
  ],
  "published_at": "2026-07-17T15:12:28.316+00:00",
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